Is backgammon luck or skill?
Anyone can win a game of backgammon with good dice, so is it really a game of skill? Yes. The dice just hide it over a single game. Here is how luck and skill fit together.
The short answer
Backgammon is a game of skill played with luck. Luck decides which moves are available; skill decides which one you pick, and whether to offer or accept a double. In one game, luck often wins. Over many games, the better player almost always comes out ahead.
What the dice decide
Every turn you roll two dice, which gives 36 equally likely outcomes. One roll in six is a double, which moves twice as far as usual. A single lucky double at the right moment, such as a 6-6 to escape your last checkers or a hit from the bar, can swing a game that was nearly lost. Your opponent cannot stop that, and neither can you.
That is why beginners sometimes beat experts, and why a strong player can lose several games in a row. The odds page shows how often each kind of shot or entry comes up.
What skill decides
With most rolls there are several legal plays and they are not equally good. A skilled player:
- knows the best opening move for each roll;
- makes the right points and keeps builders where they help;
- counts the shots they leave and the race (pip count);
- chooses a game plan that fits the position: race, hold, prime or attack;
- bears off without wasting pips or leaving needless shots (bearing off).
Each of these gains a little: a few percent of winning chances here, a gammon avoided there. No single choice looks decisive, but a game has dozens of them, and a match has hundreds.
Why longer matches favour skill
Luck is roughly even between two players over time, while skill keeps adding up. So the longer you play, the more the result reflects skill. The rating formula used on many backgammon servers (first on FIBS, the First Internet Backgammon Server) puts numbers on this. Here is the chance that a player rated 300 points higher wins, by match length:
| Match length | Stronger player wins |
|---|---|
| 1 point | 59% |
| 3 points | 65% |
| 5 points | 68% |
| 7 points | 71% |
| 11 points | 76% |
| 17 points | 81% |
| 25 points | 85% |
A single game is close to a coin flip with a lean. A 25-point match is not. That is why world championship finals are long matches, and why a fair way to judge your progress is your results over many games, not tonight's.
The doubling cube adds skill
The doubling cube turns backgammon from a game you win or lose into a game you win or lose by how much. When you are ahead you can double and force your opponent to choose between giving up a point now or playing on for twice the stakes. Doubling too early or too late, taking a hopeless position or giving up a good one: each of these costs points even when the dice are fair. Many strong players say most of their edge over casual players comes from the cube.
Making luck matter less
- Play more games. Your skill only shows up over a sample. Judge yourself over dozens of games.
- Check your plays. Use hints after you move to see where you went wrong, not just whether you lost.
- Learn the cube. It is where casual players give away the most.
- Avoid the classic errors. Start with 10 beginner mistakes.
The quickest way to see skill beat luck is to play a strong opponent many times. The Hard level in Backgammon Lounge uses a neural network trained by self-play: play a few games with hints on and watch how often its choices differ from yours.
Questions
Is backgammon a game of luck or skill?
Both. The dice decide which moves you can make, so luck dominates any single game, but skill decides how well you use each roll and when to double. Over many games or a long match, the stronger player wins far more often.
Can a beginner beat a backgammon champion?
In a single game, yes, fairly often: good dice can beat good play. In a long match the champion is a heavy favourite, because skill adds up over many decisions while luck tends to even out.
How much of backgammon is luck?
There is no single number, because it depends on how long you play. The longer the match, the smaller the part luck plays in the result. That is why serious tournaments use long matches.
Why does the doubling cube make backgammon more skillful?
The cube lets you raise the stakes when you are ahead and forces your opponent to judge whether to take or give up. Good cube decisions win points even when the dice are even, and bad ones lose them.
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